Industry experts in Japan indicate the Nintendo Switch 2 may face persistent supply shortages globally through early 2026. As detailed in a Nikkei report, projections from Toyo Securities’ Hideki Yasuda and UBS Securities’ Zhai Yijia suggest launch-month sales could approach 6 million units following its June 6 release.

Yasuda forecasts cumulative sales hitting 20 million units by March 2026, contrasting with Yijia’s more cautious estimate of 18 million. Both projections imply a 20-30% improvement over the original Switch’s initial performance.

Yijia emphasizes caution regarding sustained demand:

While early sales surpass both the Switch and PlayStation 5’s debuts, this surge reflects resolved semiconductor constraints rather than purely increased interest. Matching the original Switch’s lifetime sales trajectory remains challenging.

Yasuda maintains a bullish perspective:

The console’s unprecedented popularity suggests strong initial momentum will drive prolonged consumer interest.

DFC Intelligence predicts the Switch 2 could exceed 100 million units sold by 2029, potentially outpacing its predecessor’s lifetime performance.

Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa addressed pricing concerns in an investor document, acknowledging potential affordability challenges:

We’ve positioned Switch 2’s pricing to reflect its enhanced capabilities while prioritizing value demonstration through gameplay innovation. Although priced higher than previous systems, we’re expanding youth-focused engagement with Nintendo IP through alternative channels, aiming to cultivate future console adoption.